Macro - Bonds & Rates

Bond & Rates Regime

A separate read from the currency panel above. Bond investors want three things at once: falling inflation, stable government financing, and credible central-bank easing. Each region is scored on all three with its rates & credit detail. Tap a region to expand.

Region and pillar rings run higher is better for bonds. Market stress, inside each region, runs the other way: higher is worse.

Loading the regime read...

Educational, not financial advice.

Which end of the curve is moving?Long, middle and short Treasuries, side by side

Reading the three ends of the Treasury curve...

Long end, 1 year
--
from its one year high
Middle, 1 year
--
from its one year high
Short end, 1 year
--
from its one year high
The curve behind it
10 year minus 2 year
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10 year minus 3 month
--
Real 10 year yield
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What this is: three funds that hold Treasuries of different lengths. The long end holds bonds of twenty years and more, which move the most when rates change. The short end holds one to three year bonds, which barely move. When the Treasury issues more long dated debt, or when a steady buyer of long bonds steps back, the long end is where it shows first. This is how the curve has actually moved, not a forecast and not a recommendation to buy or sell any bond fund.