The Receipts
A dated record of market statistics. When a locked condition appears, Traderseg logs which way the market has historically tended to move next, fixes the date it will be checked, and scores it on that date. Nothing is logged unless its history went the same way at least 67% of the time (two in three). Readings that matched and readings that did not both stay. Statistics, not forecasts or recommendations.
The Receipts
Premium tool
Every reading, dated and scored.
When a locked condition appears, it is logged before anyone knows the outcome, given a fixed scoring date, and kept on the record whether it matched or not. Premium opens the whole record: every live reading, what is coming up, and an email when a condition trips.
Already Premium? Sign in and this page opens the full record.
How to read this page
- Tendency
- Which way the market has historically tended to move after this condition: higher or lower. It is a statistic about the past, not a forecast or a recommendation.
- Window
- The stretch the history was measured over. It is set per condition and shown on every card: from 1 week to 12 weeks for positioning, Smart Money and currency readings, and the calendar month for seasonal readings.
- Logged on
- The day the condition showed up and the reading was logged. It cannot be edited afterwards.
- Scored on
- The day we check whether the market again moved the way its history leaned. It is fixed when the reading is logged. If the price moved in the historical direction between the two dates, it counts as matched. If not, it is not matched. No exceptions and no second chances.
- History
- How often the market moved the same way after this condition in the past, e.g. "86% - 18 of 21". This is why the condition is on the page at all (67% or better). It is not the live record.
- Normal
- How often that market moves the same way over the same stretch anyway. The condition has to beat this to be worth showing.
- Reliability
- How much the history can be trusted, from its size and its edge over normal. Strong: 30+ past occurrences and 15+ points over normal. Solid: 20+ and 10+. Thin: fewer than that - a lean, not a law. Most seasonal months are Thin because there is only one per year.
- When matched / not matched
- The average move in the historical direction on past occurrences that matched, and the average move against it on those that did not. A condition whose matches were small and whose non-matches were large behaved very differently from the reverse, even at the same match rate.
- Worst dip
- The furthest the price moved against the historical direction inside the window on any past occurrence, even when it finished matched.
- Best run
- The furthest the price moved in the historical direction inside the window on any past occurrence, even when it did not match. Read it next to Worst dip: together they show the widest swing each way the history has seen.
- Live record
- Only readings logged on this page after the condition was locked. This is the number that matters, and it starts at zero.
Important
Receipts publishes statistics, not predictions and not personal advice. Traderseg does not make trade calls or recommendations: the words higher and lower describe the direction the market has historically tended to move after a condition, nothing more. Every percentage describes what happened in the past after a condition appeared: how often the market moved one way, and by how much. It does not mean the next reading will match, and some will not - those stay on this page too. The history behind each condition is back-tested: it was reconstructed from historical data after the fact, not recorded live. Back-tested results have real limits - they are produced with hindsight, do not reflect actual trading, costs or slippage, and can look better than results achieved in real time. Only the live record - readings logged before the outcome and scored on a date fixed in advance - is a real-time record. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, futures contract or currency, and none of it takes your finances, goals or risk tolerance into account. Trading, especially with leverage, carries a substantial risk of loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. For education only.